Country/Economy Analysis - Fundamental Analysis -Topic 8

In top down approach, in global investing, first countries wherein investments will be made will be determined. Country/economic analysis is used for this purpose. No doubt to forecast financial variables for discounted cash flow analysis, one has to make analysis of the economy. But that is a long term forecast of the economy. In textbooks when economy analysis is discussed, the focus mainly is on short term conditions that help to take short-term investment decisions.

The Key Variables of Macroeconomy

1. Growth rate of gross domestic product

1. Growth rate of gross domestic product

GDP of India for 2021-22 = Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 236.65 lakh crore, as against ₹ 198.01 lakh crore in 2020-21, showing a growth rate of 19.5 percent.

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1829784

The higher the growth rate of GDP, other things being equal, the more favorable it is for the stock market.

January 1971

Expectations, Money, and the Stock Market

by Michael W. Keran

In recent years, increasing attention has been given to analyzing influences of expectations and monetary actions on the course of economic activity. This article examines the response of time general level of stock market prices (measured by the quarterly average of the Standard and Poor’s 500 Daily Index) to these two influences.

Economic Research

 Research Division of the St. Louis Fed.

Referred to By Prasanna Chandra, in book Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/1971/01/01/expectations-money-and-the-stock-market/

https://www.icicidirect.com/knowledge-center/learn-hub/equity/chapter-10-economics-for-stock-market32

http://ijrmbs.com/vol6issue3/emmanuel2.pdf

India - Economic Analysis

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/budget-sets-path-for-investment-led-growth/articleshow/89341285.cms

https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/doc/echapter.pdf

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/portfolio-insights/ltcma/ltcma-full-report.pdf

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/asia-pacific/india-economic-outlook.html

https://www.thecasecentre.org/products/view?id=153551

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1793826

https://www.india.gov.in/spotlight/union-budget-fy-2022-2023

https://www.bcg.com/india-economic-monitor

https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/india

https://www.goodreturns.in/personal-finance/investment/these-9-sectors-in-india-are-expected-to-boom-in-2022-1235395.html

https://www.hdfcsec.com/budget2022withhdfcsec

USA - Economic Analysis

16 June 2022

United States Economic Forecast Q2 2022

The forecast examines the possibility of a recession hitting the US economy as the country continues to wade through disruptions caused by the war, COVID-19, and supply chain crisis.

Daniel Bachman

United States

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html

https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/sigma-research/Economic-Outlook/us-economic-outlook-june-2022.html

World Economy

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2022

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/global-economic-outlook-june-2022-13-06-2022

J.P. Morgan - 2022 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Full Report 

Our own multi-asset investment approach relies heavily on our LTCMAs: The assumptions form a critical foundation of our framework for designing portfolios. 

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/portfolio-insights/ltcma/ltcma-full-report.pdf

Ud 24.8.2022,  1.7.2022

Pub. 18.12.2007