Tuesday, July 4, 2023

Information Board - Security Analysis and Portfolio Management

 




Why global equities are poised for “fat and flat” returns

Published on03 JUL 2023

https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/podcasts/episodes/07-03-23-oppenheimer.html


Emerging stock markets projected to overtake the US by 2030 - Goldman Sachs Research.

Published on22 JUN 2023


The stock market capitalization of emerging markets is forecast to eclipse that of the U.S. and other developed markets in the coming years. 


The projection is that EMs’ share of the global equity market will rise from around 27% currently to 35% in 2030, 47% in 2050, and 55% in 2075. India is expected to have the largest increase in global market cap share — from a little under 3% in 2022 to 8% in 2050, and 12% in 2075 — reflecting a favorable demographic outlook and rapid growth in GDP per capita. China’s share will rise from 10% to 15% by 2050 but, amid a demographic-led slowdown in potential growth, it’s expected to then decline to around 13% by 2075.  

https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/emerging-stock-markets-projected-to-overtake-the-us-by-2030.html

What’s next for U.S. Treasuries
Published on02 JUN 2023
https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/podcasts/episodes/whats-next-for-us-treasury-issuance.html

Tuesday, August 23, 2022

Country/Economy Analysis - Fundamental Analysis -Topic 8

In top down approach, in global investing, first countries wherein investments will be made will be determined. Country/economic analysis is used for this purpose. No doubt to forecast financial variables for discounted cash flow analysis, one has to make analysis of the economy. But that is a long term forecast of the economy. In textbooks when economy analysis is discussed, the focus mainly is on short term conditions that help to take short-term investment decisions.

The Key Variables of Macroeconomy

1. Growth rate of gross domestic product



1. Growth rate of gross domestic product

GDP of India for 2021-22 = Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 236.65 lakh crore, as against ₹ 198.01 lakh crore in 2020-21, showing a growth rate of 19.5 percent.
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1829784

The higher the growth rate of GDP, other things being equal, the more favorable it is for the stock market.



January 1971
Expectations, Money, and the Stock Market
by Michael W. Keran

In recent years, increasing attention has been given to analyzing influences of expectations and monetary actions on the course of economic activity. This article examines the response of time general level of stock market prices (measured by the quarterly average of the Standard and Poor’s 500 Daily Index) to these two influences.
Economic Research
 Research Division of the St. Louis Fed.

Referred to By Prasanna Chandra, in book Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management
https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/1971/01/01/expectations-money-and-the-stock-market/

https://www.icicidirect.com/knowledge-center/learn-hub/equity/chapter-10-economics-for-stock-market32

http://ijrmbs.com/vol6issue3/emmanuel2.pdf

India - Economic Analysis


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/budget-sets-path-for-investment-led-growth/articleshow/89341285.cms

https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/doc/echapter.pdf

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/portfolio-insights/ltcma/ltcma-full-report.pdf

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/asia-pacific/india-economic-outlook.html

https://www.thecasecentre.org/products/view?id=153551

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1793826

https://www.india.gov.in/spotlight/union-budget-fy-2022-2023


https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/india

https://www.goodreturns.in/personal-finance/investment/these-9-sectors-in-india-are-expected-to-boom-in-2022-1235395.html


USA - Economic Analysis

16 June 2022
United States Economic Forecast Q2 2022
The forecast examines the possibility of a recession hitting the US economy as the country continues to wade through disruptions caused by the war, COVID-19, and supply chain crisis.
Daniel Bachman
United States
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html

https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/sigma-research/Economic-Outlook/us-economic-outlook-june-2022.html


World Economy

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2022

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/global-economic-outlook-june-2022-13-06-2022



J.P. Morgan - 2022 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Full Report 

Our own multi-asset investment approach relies heavily on our LTCMAs: The assumptions form a critical foundation of our framework for designing portfolios. 




















Ud 24.8.2022,  1.7.2022
Pub. 18.12.2007

Thursday, June 30, 2022

CFA Study Guide

I am able to make some quick posts in the cfa study guide blog. I am presently posting on reading 60 which deals with valuation using DDM and Multiples. The prescribed reading for this session is Chapter 11 from Reilly brown. The refresher points on that chapter are in this blog. http://nrao-sapm-handbook.blogspot.com/2007/12/r-b-ch1-points-to-refresh.html The posts for this reading start with the following post in CFA Level 1 study material blog. http://nrao-cfal1.blogspot.com/2008/03/reading-60-introduction-to-security.html


Free CFA Notes

Ud. 1.7.2022
pub. 14.3.2008
















Saturday, January 31, 2009

Investment Banking, Analysis and Portfolio Management Concepts Directory

I am developing a directory of concepts on knol platform. Prsently I am setting up the framework or structure. I shall create individual knols for each concept over a period of time.


Investment Banking, Analysis and Portfolio Management Concepts Directory (Ua to Uz)
http://knol.google.com/k/narayana-rao-kvss/copy-of-investment-banking-analysis-and/2utb2lsm2k7a/835

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Currently Teaching the Subject Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management

My teaching of the subject started once again on 15th January 2009. I shall update the revision point chapters and other related posts more frequently for the next three months.

I am now writing more actively on knol.google.com

On knol I am trying to develop a management knowledge revision book.

My bio page on knol.

http://knol.google.com/k/narayana-rao-kvss/narayana-rao-kvss/2utb2lsm2k7a/1#