Country/Economy Analysis - Fundamental Analysis -Topic 8

In top down approach, in global investing, first countries wherein investments will be made will be determined. Country/economic analysis is used for this purpose. No doubt to forecast financial variables for discounted cash flow analysis, one has to make analysis of the economy. But that is a long term forecast of the economy. In textbooks when economy analysis is discussed, the focus mainly is on short term conditions that help to take short-term investment decisions.

The Key Variables of Macroeconomy

1. Growth rate of gross domestic product

1. Growth rate of gross domestic product

GDP of India for 2021-22 = Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 236.65 lakh crore, as against ₹ 198.01 lakh crore in 2020-21, showing a growth rate of 19.5 percent.

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1829784

The higher the growth rate of GDP, other things being equal, the more favorable it is for the stock market.

January 1971

Expectations, Money, and the Stock Market

by Michael W. Keran

In recent years, increasing attention has been given to analyzing influences of expectations and monetary actions on the course of economic activity. This article examines the response of time general level of stock market prices (measured by the quarterly average of the Standard and Poor’s 500 Daily Index) to these two influences.

Economic Research

 Research Division of the St. Louis Fed.

Referred to By Prasanna Chandra, in book Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/1971/01/01/expectations-money-and-the-stock-market/

https://www.icicidirect.com/knowledge-center/learn-hub/equity/chapter-10-economics-for-stock-market32

http://ijrmbs.com/vol6issue3/emmanuel2.pdf

India - Economic Analysis

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/budget-sets-path-for-investment-led-growth/articleshow/89341285.cms

https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/doc/echapter.pdf

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/portfolio-insights/ltcma/ltcma-full-report.pdf

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/asia-pacific/india-economic-outlook.html

https://www.thecasecentre.org/products/view?id=153551

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1793826

https://www.india.gov.in/spotlight/union-budget-fy-2022-2023

https://www.bcg.com/india-economic-monitor

https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/india

https://www.goodreturns.in/personal-finance/investment/these-9-sectors-in-india-are-expected-to-boom-in-2022-1235395.html

https://www.hdfcsec.com/budget2022withhdfcsec

USA - Economic Analysis

16 June 2022

United States Economic Forecast Q2 2022

The forecast examines the possibility of a recession hitting the US economy as the country continues to wade through disruptions caused by the war, COVID-19, and supply chain crisis.

Daniel Bachman

United States

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html

https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/sigma-research/Economic-Outlook/us-economic-outlook-june-2022.html

World Economy

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2022

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/global-economic-outlook-june-2022-13-06-2022

J.P. Morgan - 2022 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Full Report 

Our own multi-asset investment approach relies heavily on our LTCMAs: The assumptions form a critical foundation of our framework for designing portfolios. 

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/portfolio-insights/ltcma/ltcma-full-report.pdf

Ud 24.8.2022,  1.7.2022

Pub. 18.12.2007

CFA Study Guide

I am able to make some quick posts in the cfa study guide blog. I am presently posting on reading 60 which deals with valuation using DDM and Multiples. The prescribed reading for this session is Chapter 11 from Reilly brown. The refresher points on that chapter are in this blog. http://nrao-sapm-handbook.blogspot.com/2007/12/r-b-ch1-points-to-refresh.html The posts for this reading start with the following post in CFA Level 1 study material blog. http://nrao-cfal1.blogspot.com/2008/03/reading-60-introduction-to-security.html

Free CFA Notes

https://ift.world/notes/

Ud. 1.7.2022

pub. 14.3.2008

Dynamic Approach to Investment Policy for Corporate Pension Schemes

Goldman Sachs Report March 2010

Understanding US Economic Indicators

Goldman Sach's 2008 report

Investment Banking, Analysis and Portfolio Management Concepts Directory

I am developing a directory of concepts on knol platform. Prsently I am setting up the framework or structure. I shall create individual knols for each concept over a period of time.


Investment Banking, Analysis and Portfolio Management Concepts Directory (Ua to Uz)
http://knol.google.com/k/narayana-rao-kvss/copy-of-investment-banking-analysis-and/2utb2lsm2k7a/835

Currently Teaching the Subject Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management

My teaching of the subject started once again on 15th January 2009. I shall update the revision point chapters and other related posts more frequently for the next three months.

I am now writing more actively on knol.google.com

On knol I am trying to develop a management knowledge revision book.

My bio page on knol.

http://knol.google.com/k/narayana-rao-kvss/narayana-rao-kvss/2utb2lsm2k7a/1#

Collaborative Open Source Financial Analysis.

The Goldman Sachs Forensic Analysis
by Reggie Middleton

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10836.htm

Reggie Middleton
http://boombustblog.com/

Reggie Middleton is the personification of the freethinking maverick--the penultimate nonconformist as it applies to macro strategies, investment, and analysis. He uses his background and knowledge in new media, distributed computing, risk management, insurance, financial engineering, real estate, corporate valuation, and financial analysis to pursue, analyze, and capitalize on global macroeconomic opportunities.

Finding most available research lacking, both in quality and quantity, Mr. Middleton assembled his own talented research staff. As forensic research is a lynchpin for his own investing, "to actually put food on the table," he stands behind it as doing what it is supposed to do - illustrate, elucidate and educate.

He does not sell advice or research. He is an entrepreneur who exists outside of mainstream corporate America and Wall Street. This allows him the freedom to do things that many cannot--perform without conflicts of interest and corporate politics. He prides himself on developing some of the highest quality, actionable research available - regardless of price. He welcomes any and all to peruse his blog of freely available analysis, opinion and participatory social media; use his custom tools, download files, interact with the community and make critical comparisons from a results orientated perspective. Reggie believes ideas and implementations are improved and fine-tuned when bounced off of the collective intellect of the many, in lieu of that of the few - in essence, a form of collaborative open source financial analysis.

Visit his blog Boom Bust Blog.