In top down approach, in global investing, first countries wherein investments will be made will be determined. Country/economic analysis is used for this purpose.
No doubt to forecast financial variables for discounted cash flow analysis, one has to make analysis of the economy. But that is a long term forecast of the economy. In textbooks when economy analysis is discussed, the focus mainly is on short term conditions that help to take short-term investment decisions.
The Key Variables of Macroeconomy
1. Growth rate of gross domestic product
1. Growth rate of gross domestic product
GDP of India for 2021-22 = Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 236.65 lakh crore, as against ₹ 198.01 lakh crore in 2020-21, showing a growth rate of 19.5 percent.
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1829784
The higher the growth rate of GDP, other things being equal, the more favorable it is for the stock market.
January 1971
Expectations, Money, and the Stock Market
by Michael W. Keran
In recent years, increasing attention has been given to analyzing influences of expectations and monetary actions on the course of economic activity. This article examines the response of time general level of stock market prices (measured by the quarterly average of the Standard and Poor’s 500 Daily Index) to these two influences.
Economic Research
Research Division of the St. Louis Fed.
Referred to By Prasanna Chandra, in book Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management
https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/1971/01/01/expectations-money-and-the-stock-market/
https://www.icicidirect.com/knowledge-center/learn-hub/equity/chapter-10-economics-for-stock-market32
http://ijrmbs.com/vol6issue3/emmanuel2.pdf
India - Economic Analysis
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/budget-sets-path-for-investment-led-growth/articleshow/89341285.cms
https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/doc/echapter.pdf
https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/portfolio-insights/ltcma/ltcma-full-report.pdf
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/asia-pacific/india-economic-outlook.html
https://www.thecasecentre.org/products/view?id=153551
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1793826
https://www.india.gov.in/spotlight/union-budget-fy-2022-2023
https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/india
https://www.goodreturns.in/personal-finance/investment/these-9-sectors-in-india-are-expected-to-boom-in-2022-1235395.html
USA - Economic Analysis
16 June 2022
United States Economic Forecast Q2 2022
The forecast examines the possibility of a recession hitting the US economy as the country continues to wade through disruptions caused by the war, COVID-19, and supply chain crisis.
Daniel Bachman
United States
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html
https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/sigma-research/Economic-Outlook/us-economic-outlook-june-2022.html
World Economy
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2022
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/global-economic-outlook-june-2022-13-06-2022
J.P. Morgan - 2022 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Full Report
Our own multi-asset investment approach relies heavily on our LTCMAs: The assumptions form a critical foundation of our framework for designing portfolios.
Ud 24.8.2022, 1.7.2022
Pub. 18.12.2007
